The 1,000th match in FIFA World Cup history will take place at Estadio BBVA, where Tunisia face a must-win encounter against an ambitious Japan side looking to take a significant step towards the knockout stages.

While Japan arrive in confident mood following an encouraging opening performance, Tunisia find themselves under immediate pressure after suffering one of the darkest days in their World Cup history.

The Eagles of Carthage were comprehensively beaten 5-1 by Sweden in their opening Group F fixture, a result that marked Tunisia’s heaviest defeat ever at a World Cup. The loss prompted swift action from the Tunisian Football Federation, who dismissed manager Sabri Lamouchi and appointed experienced French coach Hervé Renard in a bid to rescue their campaign.

Renard faces a difficult task. Tunisia have won just one of their last eight matches, drawing two and losing five, while their last three defeats have come by an aggregate score of 11-1. Another loss here would leave them on the brink of a seventh consecutive World Cup group-stage elimination.

However, there is some cause for optimism. Tunisia managed to win a match at each of their previous two World Cup appearances and will hope a change in leadership can inspire a similar response.

Japan, meanwhile, demonstrated their resilience in a thrilling 2-2 draw with the Netherlands. The Samurai Blue twice came from behind to earn a valuable point against one of Europe’s traditional heavyweights, extending the belief that they could be one of the tournament’s surprise packages.

The draw ended a six-match winning streak for Hajime Moriyasu’s side, but their performance reinforced expectations that they are capable of making a deep run in the competition. Japan have reached the knockout stages on several occasions but have never advanced beyond the last 16.

Moriyasu was in charge when Japan suffered a penalty shoot-out defeat to Croatia at that stage in 2022 and will be eager to guide his side beyond that barrier this time around.

History favours the Asian nation. Japan have won five of the previous six meetings between the sides, including a 2-0 victory at the 2002 World Cup. Interestingly, none of the six previous encounters have seen both teams score.

Tunisia’s defensive vulnerabilities were exposed against Sweden, with three of the five goals they conceded arriving from outside the penalty area. Nevertheless, their recent matches have rarely lacked entertainment, with both teams scoring in each of their last five competitive fixtures.

Japan have shown a tendency to grow stronger as matches progress. Six of their last seven international goals have come after the interval, highlighting their ability to finish games strongly. Another notable trend is that they have not drawn consecutive matches within 90 minutes since March 2023.

One player who could be handed an opportunity to make an impact for Tunisia is Elias Achouri. The winger was surprisingly left on the bench against Sweden, despite all five of his international goals coming in matches Tunisia went on to win. His most recent strikes arrived during the Africa Cup of Nations last December.

Japan will once again look to Koki Ogawa for inspiration. The forward has directly contributed to a goal in each of his last two appearances, scoring once and providing an assist. His six goals during World Cup qualifying all came in victories by at least a two-goal margin.

Tunisia appear to have no fresh injury concerns heading into the match, while Japan have been dealt a setback with the loss of influential attacker Takefusa Kubo, who is sidelined with a knee injury sustained against the Netherlands.

Given the contrasting form of the two sides, Japan will enter the contest as clear favourites. Tunisia desperately need a response, but against a disciplined and confident Japanese side, that may prove difficult. Backing Japan to claim all three points appears the most sensible option as they seek to edge closer to qualification for the knockout stages.