Senegal and Iraq head into their final 2026 FIFA World Cup Group I fixture in Toronto still searching for their first points of the tournament, with both sides needing victory to stand any chance of progressing as one of the competition’s best third-placed teams.

Expectations were high for Senegal ahead of their third consecutive World Cup appearance, but successive defeats to France (3-1) and Norway (3-2) have left the Lions of Teranga facing an early exit. Another defeat would mark the first time Senegal have lost all three matches in a single World Cup campaign, while conceding at least three goals in consecutive games is something they had avoided throughout the 21st century until this tournament.

Despite their defensive struggles, there is still reason for optimism. Senegal have kept eight clean sheets in their last ten international victories, showing they are capable of tightening up at the back when it matters. With qualification still mathematically possible, Pape Thiaw’s side will be determined to produce a much-improved performance.

For Iraq, simply reaching the World Cup finals represented a significant achievement, with this only their second appearance on football’s biggest stage. However, defeats to Norway (4-1) and France (3-0) have exposed defensive frailties, leaving them with a difficult task if they are to reach the knockout rounds. Their inferior goal difference means even three points may not be enough to extend their stay in Canada.

A clean sheet would greatly improve Iraq’s chances, but recent form suggests that could prove difficult. They have managed just one shutout in their last eight internationals, and another defensive lapse could see them finish the group stage without a point.

This will be the first-ever meeting between the two nations. Senegal, however, have never lost to Asian opposition at the World Cup, recording one win and one draw from their previous two encounters.

Recent trends point towards another entertaining contest. Four of Senegal’s last five matches have produced over 3.5 goals, while six of their last seven goals have arrived after the interval. Iraq’s previous six matches have all featured a goal inside the opening 30 minutes, and the side scoring first has gone on to win nine of Iraq’s last ten fixtures.

Ismaïla Sarr will once again be Senegal’s main attacking threat after scoring twice against Norway, although it was the first time in 13 scoring appearances for his country that his goals came in a defeat. Iraq will look to Ali Yousif, who scored the winner in last month’s 1-0 victory over Andorra, although he also collected Iraq’s most recent red card during a friendly against Venezuela before the tournament.

There are injury concerns for both sides. Senegal goalkeeper Édouard Mendy was forced off against Norway, while Iraq striker Aymen Hussein was substituted with an injury during the defeat to France.

Betting Analysis

Senegal have shown enough attacking quality despite their disappointing results and should have too much firepower for an Iraq side that has struggled defensively throughout the tournament. With the Lions of Teranga often improving after the break, Senegal to win to nil looks an attractive selection, with a second-half goal also offering value.